Trump Tariffed Canada's Oil. He Forgot Who Fuels the Entire American Heartland.

By The Decision Room

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100%. That's the share of the imported crude oil running through the American Midwest's refineries that comes from a single foreign country: Canada. In the northern tier, Canadian crude is 94% of everything those refineries run — foreign and domestic combined. Take Canada out, and the refineries that fuel the heartland don't slow down. They stop. Zoom out and it's still staggering: more than 60% of ALL the crude oil the United States imports comes from Canada — over 4 million barrels a day. Not Saudi Arabia. Not Venezuela. The country Trump keeps threatening to annex and tariff. And in February 2025, he did tariff it. The problem: a tariff on Canadian crude isn't really paid by Canada — it lands on the U.S. refineries that have no other source for the heavy, sour crude they were custom-built (with billions in cokers and hydrocrackers) to run. The IEA was blunt: if tariffs hit Canadian crude, Midwest refiners would struggle to adjust due to infrastructure constraints. There is no plan

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