It's Not Gold You Should Be Watching. It's Cardboard.
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While investors track precious metals for signs of an economic crash, one of the clearest warnings may already be sitting on your doorstep. America’s largest box manufacturers are permanently closing mills, cutting production, and eliminating thousands of jobs because companies are ordering fewer packages. When businesses stop buying boxes, it usually means fewer products are being manufactured, shipped, and sold. Cardboard is connected to nearly every part of the physical economy. Electronics, groceries, car parts, furniture, and online purchases all depend on corrugated packaging long before they reach consumers. Box orders can reveal changes in factory output several months in advance, making cardboard demand a surprisingly powerful recession indicator. Right now, shipments are near decade lows, China’s paper imports are falling, and millions of tons of North American production capacity have disappeared. This breakdown explains the cardboard crisis, the bullwhip effect, factory c
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