The Evidence of Our Zero-Sum World
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The Decline of Empires - History shows that clashes between ruling and rising powers often lead to war, yet the post–World War II era stands out for avoiding direct great-power conflict. The U.S.–Soviet rivalry demonstrated how nuclear deterrence and proxy conflicts can suppress all-out war. In Europe, Germany’s muted resurgence reflects how institutions like the EU can dampen traditional power transitions. Thucydides’ Trap and Game Theory - Thucydides’ Trap highlights the structural tension between a dominant power and a rising challenger, though war is not inevitable. Positive-sum relationships reduce incentives to fight, while zero-sum dynamics heighten conflict risk. When rivalry turns negative-sum, both sides lose, making escalation destructive rather than beneficial. The U.S., China, and Strategic Incentives - China’s rapid rise and the United States’ relative decline reshape U.S. incentives toward more aggressive, zero-sum strategies. This logic underpins growing tensions acro
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