The Strategic Mistake Of Leaving The JCPOA
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A Weaker Agreement? - The Memorandum of Understanding hit roadbumps this week after renewed tensions, but both the United States and Iran remain incentivised in many ways to avoid a return to full-scale war. Unlike the 2015 JCPOA, this current understanding is temporary and still requires a full formal agreement. The key question is whether it can deliver lasting stability or simply delay future conflict. Also, it’s interesting how this current understanding compares to the JCPOA. How It Compares To The JCPOA - The JCPOA imposed strict limits on uranium enrichment, stockpiles, centrifuges, and inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. The current understanding appears weaker in almost every area, with fewer verifiable restrictions and greater uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme. It also introduces new challenges, particularly over the future of the Strait of Hormuz, that the JCPOA never had to address. Regional Power Has Shifted - Although Iran’s regional proxy net
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