The Art Of Prediction
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Prediction as Probabilistic Modelling: In geopolitics, prediction is not about certainty but about estimating probabilities and potential payoffs under incomplete information. Unlike simple two-player games, real-world geopolitics involves many actors with different incentives, risk tolerances, and beliefs. This creates non-linear and uncertain outcomes that must be approached through structured modelling rather than definitive forecasts. Scenario Trees and Sequential Decision-Making: Geopolitics functions as a sequential game where one move triggers reactions and counter-reactions across multiple actors. Scenario trees help map these possible pathways by assigning decisions to nodes and responses to branches. While they simplify complexity, they highlight how each strategic choice reshapes the future set of possible outcomes. Bayesian Updating and Information Signals: As new geopolitical information emerges, actors update their beliefs and adjust the probabilities of future scenar
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