Will Fertiliser Disruptions In The Middle East Lead To A Food Shock?
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Hormuz Disruption Reshapes Trade – The breakdown in talks and rising tensions have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a contested chokepoint, with Iran influencing transit and the United States attempting to counter this. Shipping risks are rising, with higher insurance costs globally. This is already pushing crude prices higher and embedding instability into global energy markets. Fertiliser Shock Builds Beneath the Surface – The Gulf accounts for a significant share of globally traded nitrogen fertilisers, making disruptions highly impactful. At the same time, natural gas, responsible for 70–90% of ammonia production costs, is also being squeezed, particularly through LNG markets dominated by Qatar. This creates a dual shock, with reduced fertiliser exports and rising production costs globally. Food Impacts Are Delayed but Severe – Rising fertiliser prices will reduce demand, but the real effects will appear over the next few planting cycles. Lower fertiliser application leads to y
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